BLACK CAB FLEET: Demand for older electric TX taxis could rise as diesel cabs leave the trade
- Perry Richardson
- 58 minutes ago
- 3 min read
A rise in demand for older electric TX taxis is predicted as diesel-powered black cabs continue to leave the trade, creating new pressures on the used taxi market. Industry observers believe the next 12 months will see a noticeable shift in purchasing trends as drivers weigh up the costs of upgrading against an uncertain financial backdrop and dwindling diesel supply.
According to a fleet expert writing in TAXI Newspaper, the balance between supply and demand is set to tilt towards used electric TX models, known also as TXEs. The expert said: “The demand for late low mileage cabs is growing – and with it so are its prices. With over 1,000 older diesels dropping out of the fleet in the next year, it’s almost certainly a good move as demand will inevitably grow in the coming months and years.”
The second-hand market is becoming a key part of the taxi industry’s transition to electric vehicles with more drivers now seeking out used options. Demand is said to be rising particularly among operators outside London who previously preferred TX4s but are now struggling to maintain older diesel vehicles.
The fleet expert added: “I am already receiving a lot more calls from customers in out-of-town areas who are looking for older TXEs. Once upon a time, many of these same people used to only be interested in TX4s, but with the increasing difficulty of getting spares for Euro VIs, they are now looking to go straight from Euro Vs to TXEs.”
This transition is having wider implications for vehicle pricing. Euro VI cab values have begun to fall as interest in diesel models drops across London. However, late Euro VI Vitos are currently bucking the trend. Export demand, particularly from overseas buyers, continues to sustain higher prices despite growing issues around the availability of rear-wheel steering components and other essential parts. “The problem,” the expert noted, “is that it’s keeping prices artificially high, despite almost non-existent parts levels for rear wheel steering components.”
While demand for used TXEs is likely to remain strong, there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of the driver base itself. Recent Transport for London (TfL) licensing data revealed a drop of 68 licensed taxi drivers in just one week, with the total number of active taxi driver licences falling to 16,290 as of 19 October 2025. No new licences were issued during that same week, highlighting a continued decline in the workforce.
Cabvision, a leading taxi technology provider, responded to the figures by describing the fall as “inevitable”. The company said the reduction was largely due to the natural end of vehicle lifespans and retirements among long-serving drivers rather than short-term administrative delays. It also warned that the trend could accelerate if replacement drivers are not drawn into the trade.
Cabvision stated: “We are seeing the result of an ageing driver base and a lack of new entrants. While measures such as digital registration and the SERU (Safety, Equality and Regulatory Understanding) test play a role, the deeper issue lies in demographics and vehicle cost.”
The company has suggested that taxi vehicle numbers could dip below 14,000 by the end of October, describing the current period as “ugly” for the trade. Many drivers are reportedly choosing to retire rather than invest in a used electric taxi, with high purchase prices, limited stock, and the cost of home charging infrastructure all contributing factors.
Industry experts are now questioning whether the used TXE market can keep up with the pace of retirements. If driver numbers continue to fall at the same rate, the availability of both vehicles and drivers may become increasingly tight in the months ahead. While prices for used TXEs are expected to rise further, that same trend could put ownership out of reach for some operators, particularly those working in smaller towns and rural areas where income levels are lower.
There are also growing concerns about the long-term impact on passenger availability. Fewer licensed drivers and a slower transition to new vehicles could lead to longer wait times for passengers and a reduced number of taxis in operation, particularly during peak hours and at major transport hubs.
Some industry commentators have called for additional financial support to ease the transition from diesel to electric taxis. While Transport for London had introduced various funding initiatives when the electric taxi first arrived, including grants for shifting to zero-emission capable vehicles, that funding has now been dropped.
The next few months are expected to test the resilience of the London taxi market. If diesel vehicles continue to leave the fleet without sufficient replacements, both the value and availability of used electric taxis could become critical issues. With more drivers nearing retirement and few new licence applicants entering the system, the industry faces a dual challenge: maintaining service levels while completing the shift to cleaner vehicles.
