‘HIGHLY UNCERTAIN’: No one knows how many driverless miles Britain will clock up by 2035, Government concedes

The Government has said the “overall uptake of automated vehicles is highly uncertain” and has declined to forecast what proportion of vehicle miles will be automated by 2035.

The assessment was given by Transport Minister Justin Madders in response to a written parliamentary question from Alex Mayer, Labour MP for Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard.

Mayer asked the Secretary of State for Transport what estimate had been made of the proportion of vehicle miles expected to be autonomous by 2035. The response, published on 1 September 2026, confirmed that no such estimate had been produced.

Madders said: “For these reasons, the overall uptake of automated vehicles is highly uncertain so no estimate of the proportion of vehicle miles which will be automated by 2035 has been made.”

The response suggests that, despite continuing work on the legal framework for self-driving vehicles, ministers are not yet prepared to attach a firm figure to their expected use on Britain’s roads.

The Government expects the technology to be introduced gradually. According to Madders, uptake will depend on operators meeting “very high regulatory standards”, as well as the viability of commercial deployment models, the pace of market development and local consent for automated passenger services.

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That reference to local consent is particularly relevant to the taxi and private hire sector, where autonomous passenger services could affect licensing policy, fleet investment, operating models and the future demand for professional drivers.

Madders said full implementation of the Automated Vehicles Act is expected during the second half of 2027. He added that the legislation would help ensure automated vehicles operating on roads in Great Britain could contribute to wider improvements in road safety.

However, the absence of a 2035 forecast leaves operators, licensing authorities and vehicle manufacturers without an official indication of how quickly automated services could account for a meaningful share of road use.

The Government’s position indicates that implementation of the legal framework should not be treated as a forecast of rapid commercial adoption. Operators will still need to satisfy regulatory requirements and establish workable deployment models, while automated passenger services may also depend on support at local level.

For the taxi and private hire industry, the response points towards a gradual and potentially uneven rollout rather than a fixed national transition. The scale of automated vehicle use by 2035 will depend on whether the technology can move from regulated trials and limited services into commercially sustainable operations.