INACTION PLAN: Sharp decline in London taxi numbers sparks overdue scrutiny of TfL’s sector strategy
- Perry Richardson
- May 16
- 5 min read
London’s licensed taxi fleet has fallen by more than a third over the past decade, prompting growing concern from industry groups and renewed scrutiny of Transport for London’s (TfL) approach to regulating and supporting the trade.
Figures published by TfL show that the number of black cabs licensed to operate in the capital has declined from 22,810 in 2013-14 to 14,937 in 2023-24—a 34.5 per cent reduction. The drop coincides with a range of pressures facing the sector, including rising vehicle costs, a lack of targeted support for electric transitions, and a system of entry viewed by many as outdated in the face of modern alternatives.
The number of private hire operators in London has also fallen significantly, from 3,038 in 2013-14 to 1,740 this year. Though the private hire market has changed dramatically with the rise of app-based services, taxi industry leaders argue the impact on their side of the trade has been more disruptive, raising questions about fairness and regulatory direction.
In March, TfL released its Taxi and Private Hire Action Plan 2025, which outlines its goals to improve passenger services, protect safety, support environmental targets and make driving in the sector a viable career. The plan has drawn criticism from both taxi and private hire representatives, many of whom say the proposed steps fall short of addressing the core challenges now embedded in the industry.
On Thursday 15 May, the London Assembly Transport Committee held a hearing at City Hall, bringing together key representatives from the licensed taxi trade. The panel included Steve McNamara from the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association (LTDA), Grant Davis from the London Cab Drivers Club (LCDC), Trevor Merralls from the United Cabbies Group, and Peter Bond from Unite the Union.
Driving standards and trust in regulation
The session opened with concerns over TfL’s decision to remove enhanced driving tests for taxi drivers. Panelists argued that these tests were a key component of public safety and professional standards. There was strong support for their reinstatement, but frustration over policy delays was also voiced.
TfL had previously consulted on changes to the testing regime, but the implementation of any adjustments has been postponed until at least 2026-27. Driver representatives said repeated delays and unpublicised consultations have damaged trust in TfL’s decision-making.
The Knowledge—calls for reform, not removal
Discussion turned to The Knowledge of London, the rigorous test required to qualify as a licensed taxi driver. While panelists agreed that modernisation is needed, such as adopting digital tools, modular testing, and remote assessment, they were clear that the standard should not be watered down.
Suggestions from the LTDA’s McNamara included allowing students to learn 50 routes at a time and incorporating progress tracking via apps. Panel members highlighted the cultural and vocational value of The Knowledge, describing it as a respected qualification that connects drivers to the city’s history and identity. The panel also noted its role in providing stable employment, particularly for working-class and immigrant communities.
Structural decline and the lure of private hire apps
Training to become a black cab driver can now take up to four years, with no guaranteed financial return. High upfront costs, including the purchase of compliant vehicles and associated financing, have made entry into the trade even more difficult.
By contrast, joining an app-based private hire platform requires far less training and cost, offering immediate earning potential. This disparity has led to a steady erosion in new taxi driver applications, contributing to the long-term decline in numbers.
Unfair competition and weakening identity
Meralls accused TfL of failing to enforce a proper two-tier system between taxis and private hire. Without stronger regulatory separation, the incentive to undertake The Knowledge diminishes.
There were also concerns about the erosion of black cab identity and status. The group argued that treating taxis like private hire vehicles undermines the long-established model of public service that licensed taxis are built on.
Affordability and monopoly pressures in vehicle supply
The high cost of compliant electric taxis is a central issue. Drivers pointed to the increase in LEVC vehicle prices, which have risen from around £56,000 in 2018 to over £70,000 today. At the same time, scrappage schemes have been reduced, grants limited, and finance options restricted.
Calls were made for TfL to work directly with the Energy Savings Trust to deliver zero or low-interest loans through the Green Finance Fund. Panelists believe this would allow wider access and avoid the problems of indirect financial support.
LEVC currently dominates the market for London taxis, a situation some see as a monopoly. Attempts by other manufacturers, such as Mercedes-Benz and Nissan, to produce compliant alternatives have failed to take off. Strict vehicle specifications—such as the turning circle requirement and side wheelchair access—limit options but are defended as essential to maintaining black cab standards.
Sustainability without recognition
Panelists noted that over 65 per cent of the taxi fleet licensed since 2018 are zero-emission capable vehicles. However, they said this transition has received little public credit, despite black cabs being ahead of other sectors in adopting electric technology. Initiatives such as Enso’s low-emission tyres were also mentioned as examples of innovation in the fleet.
Access restrictions and operational barriers
The ability to operate efficiently was another key topic discussed. Taxi drivers stressed the importance of continued access to bus lanes and restricted roads, particularly for serving disabled passengers. However, road changes and schemes such as Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs) have made it harder for taxis to offer true door-to-door service.
Drivers argued that the current access restrictions contradict TfL’s own messaging and reduce the practicality of hiring a black cab. Longer detours raise fares and inconvenience passengers. Locations such as Tottenham Court Road, Fleet Street, and Bishopsgate were cited as problem areas.
The panel called for a city-wide policy that ensures taxis can operate freely on essential routes. They also warned that excluding taxis from new road schemes undermines their public transport role.
Enforcement gaps and regulatory inconsistency
TfL’s enforcement capability came under fire, with just six compliance officers tasked with overseeing the entire city. This has led to issues at taxi ranks and in bus lanes, where improper parking by delivery riders is said to go largely unchecked.
Panelists argued that TfL should require boroughs to include taxis in new road projects if they accept transport-related funding. Without this, they said, access and consistency will continue to decline.
So what’s next?
The Committee closed the meeting by inviting written submissions and confirmed that a second session will be held to continue reviewing the action plan. Chairing the discussion, Assembly Members said the trade was once viewed as offering secure and respected work and questioned whether TfL’s current approach could restore that perception.
The next hearing is expected to look at further evidence on whether the capital’s regulatory framework still supports a viable and distinct licensed taxi service in the face of growing technological and economic pressures.
