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London’s shrinking black cab fleet is driving up used taxi values as new vehicle supply remains limited
Updated: Jul 30
London’s licensed taxi fleet continues to contract, with the number of black cabs falling to levels not seen for decades as very few new vehicles enter service.
Transport for London (TfL) recorded 13,542 licensed taxis for the week ending 19 July, down 29 on the previous week. Just five new vehicle licences were issued during the same period, while 9,550 taxis are now zero emission capable.
The decline has been relentless in recent years, with data showing around 22,500 licensed taxis operating across London in 2014/15. Today’s fleet is almost 9,000 vehicles smaller, representing a reduction of around 40% over little more than a decade.
One consequence has been a sharp increase in demand for used black cabs. With relatively few new purpose-built taxis entering the market, existing vehicles are retaining their value far more strongly than many drivers would have expected. Dealers and fleet specialists have reported sustained demand as drivers compete for a limited supply of well-maintained licensed vehicles.
Several factors are contributing to the slowdown in new vehicle purchases in recent times. High purchase costs, financing pressures, and drivers delaying investment while waiting for the next generation of purpose-built vehicles have all reduced replacement rates.
The shrinking fleet has implications beyond vehicle prices. For drivers entering the trade, finding a suitable licensed taxi has become increasingly difficult and often more expensive. For passengers, particularly wheelchair users, continued reductions in the purpose-built taxi fleet risk placing additional pressure on vehicle availability during busy periods, even though London’s taxi fleet remains one of the world’s largest accessible transport networks.
Whether the market begins to recover may depend on renewed confidence. A competitively priced next-generation purpose-built taxi, clearer long-term government support and improved confidence among drivers could encourage investment. Until then, the used market is likely to remain exceptionally strong while the number of licensed taxis continues to edge lower.
