Manchester taxi grants raise questions over potential pressure on London’s second-hand black cab market
- Perry Richardson
- 5 minutes ago
- 2 min read
Greater Manchester’s £12,560 Hackney Support Fund grant is already being welcomed by drivers locally, but attention is now turning south to what the scheme could mean for London’s tightly balanced second-hand black cab market.
The concern being voiced quietly across the trade is simple. Manchester licensed drivers, armed with a sizeable grant and additional manufacturer support, may find themselves in a stronger purchasing position than London drivers when competing for used LEVC TX vehicles currently working in the capital. With funding allocated on a first-come basis and capped timeframes to spend it, Manchester buyers are incentivised to move quickly and decisively.
London’s second-hand market has, until now, been largely internal. Drivers leaving the trade sell to other London drivers, often through dealers specialising in ex-fleet TX vehicles. However, the introduction of a £12,560 subsidy changes the maths. A Manchester driver able to apply that grant to a used TX may comfortably outbid a London driver relying solely on private finance or savings, particularly as residual values for compliant black cabs have already been under strain.
This raises the prospect of price inflation. Increased demand from outside London, backed by public funding, could push up asking prices for well-maintained TX vehicles. For London drivers still needing a compliant cab to work, that would add further pressure to operating costs in a city where margins are already tight and financial support for upgrades has steadily declined.
There is also the question of fleet availability. If a meaningful number of London drivers choose to sell into a buoyant Manchester-backed market, the capital could see a short-term squeeze on vehicle supply. London’s licensed taxi numbers have already fallen in recent years, and any additional friction in replacing vehicles risks compounding the decline.
That said, the dynamic is not entirely negative for London drivers. A stronger second-hand market could improve part-exchange values for those looking to upgrade from an older TX into a newer model. Higher residuals would reduce the capital gap when changing vehicles, something many London drivers argue has been missing since grant support tapered away. In that sense, Manchester’s funding could indirectly strengthen London drivers’ negotiating position with dealers and manufacturers.
There is also a behavioural angle. Drivers nearing retirement or considering leaving the trade may be tempted to cash in if demand from outside London pushes prices up. While this could exacerbate driver shortages in the capital, it also reflects a market correcting after years of suppressed values driven by regulatory pressure and limited buyer confidence.
Whether this cross-regional impact materialises at scale will depend on how aggressively Manchester drivers enter the second-hand market and how dealers respond. If supply tightens and prices rise sharply, it may reignite calls for London to revisit targeted funding or scrappage support to avoid being outgunned by subsidised buyers elsewhere.
What is clear is that Greater Manchester’s Hackney Support Fund does not exist in isolation. In a national taxi market where vehicles, drivers and capital flow across boundaries, one region’s intervention can reshape conditions far beyond its borders. For London, the coming months may reveal whether Manchester’s support becomes a competitive disadvantage or an unexpected opportunity to rebalance a struggling upgrade cycle.
