London taxi industry at tipping point as 1,800 black cabs near retirement deadline, warns LTDA Chairman
- Perry Richardson
- 2 hours ago
- 2 min read
The chairman of the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association (LTDA) has warned the London taxi trade is facing a critical period of change as rising costs and the loss of financial support threaten the future size of the capital’s black cab fleet.
Writing in TAXI Newspaper, Paul Brennan said: “We are clearly in a period of transition for the London taxi trade,” adding that drivers now need “practical support to maintain a strong, reliable fleet”.
According to Brennan, around 1,800 licensed taxis are expected to reach the end of their licensing age limit over the next two years, creating uncertainty around how many drivers will remain in the industry and how quickly vehicles can be replaced.
He said some drivers will look to buy newer taxis while others may choose to retrofit existing vehicles to Euro 6 emissions standards using the recently available HJS conversion for TX4 models. However, Brennan warned many drivers may instead decide to leave the trade altogether.
Paul Brennan says rising costs, expiring grants and ageing vehicles risk driving experienced cabbies out of the trade unless fresh support is introduced.
“Rising costs, uncertainty, and the price of replacement vehicles have pushed many to that point,” Brennan wrote. “Every time a driver leaves, our fleet shrinks further.”
The LTDA chairman pointed to the ending of previous grant funding in March as a major concern for drivers weighing up whether to continue operating. Brennan said the industry had “successfully fought hard to retain funding for way beyond its original lifespan”, despite support being reduced over time.
Since the grant ended, Brennan said he has continued lobbying for a replacement scheme that better reflects current financial pressures facing drivers. “The truth is that we need a replacement scheme that helps drivers remain in the trade,” he wrote.
Brennan argued any future support package should include grants for both new and second-hand TXE taxis, noting that not every cab driver wants or can afford a brand-new electric vehicle.
“I understand there are around 500 second-hand TXE cabs currently available, with prices starting from around £35,000,” Brennan said. “But introduce a £10,000 grant and the picture changes immediately.”
He added that if drivers can also secure around £2,000 from selling an older cab outside London, the effective replacement cost could fall closer to £23,000. Brennan described that figure as becoming “a more realistic avenue” for drivers considering whether to stay in the industry.
The LTDA chairman also highlighted the longer-term resale value of compliant taxis, saying drivers purchasing TXEs are “buying an asset with value in years to come” rather than simply spending money on a vehicle.
Alongside grants for second-hand electric taxis, Brennan called for continued backing for Euro 6 conversions, arguing both options are needed to keep enough licensed taxis operating in London.
“What we need now is action that matches the urgency of the moment,” Brennan said, as he referenced an expected decision from Transport for London on future funding support.
He added that the taxi trade does not require a return to previous fleet sizes but instead needs “stability, sensible support, and enough cabs on the road to meet demand properly”.
Brennan concluded by suggesting cheaper finance deals and more
affordable purpose-built compliant taxis could also help improve long-term
sustainability across the licensed trade.
