WHEN WILL IT END? A decade of declining fleet and driver numbers for London’s taxi trade
The iconic black taxi, a staple of London’s transport network, has faced significant challenges over the past decade. Recent figures reveal the concerning reduction in both the number of licensed drivers and vehicles, raising ongoing questions about the future of the trade and where the decline will stop.
For the week ending 24 November 2024, Transport for London (TfL) reported 16,965 licensed taxi drivers, of which 15,243 held All London licences. Licensed taxi vehicles totalled just 14,462. These figures pale in comparison to those recorded a decade ago, marking a clear downward trend.
In the 2009/10 period, there were 24,914 licensed drivers, including 21,334 All London drivers. By 2022/23, this number had dropped to 18,297, representing a 26.6% decline. Similarly, the number of licensed taxi vehicles has fallen from 22,445 in 2009/10 to 14,462 today, a reduction of over 35%.
The steepest drop occurred during the pandemic years. Between 2019/20 and 2020/21, vehicle licences plummeted from 18,504 to 13,461, while the total number of drivers fell from 22,337 to 20,786. Although some recovery has taken place, numbers remain far below pre-pandemic levels.
Suburban drivers have seen the most dramatic decline, with their numbers shrinking from 3,580 in 2009/10 to just 1,970 in 2022/23. This represents a 45% decrease, suggesting suburban areas may be particularly hard-hit by the shortage of black cabs.
The decline can be attributed to several factors. The rise of app-based private hire services, increasing operational costs, and stricter environmental regulations have all played a part. Additionally, the pandemic exacerbated these pressures, with many drivers leaving the trade during this period of reduced demand.
While the demand for black taxi services remains high and a symbol of reliability and professionalism, the current trend poses a significant challenge.
